Season of Strategy: How Retailers Are Redefining Holiday Success

The holiday season of 2025 may appear the same as previous years on the surface, from the reliable November 1st roll out of holiday-themed coffee and decorations to the rising “Pre-Black Friday” sales, but in the background, retailers face an uncertain season. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that shoppers will spend less this year, as inflationary pressure, shifting tariffs, and increasingly cautious behavior have begun reshaping demand curves. Shoppers are more intentional, promotions are beginning earlier, and retailers are moving away from the traditional “traffic solves everything” mindset toward more disciplined, margin-protective models.

Retailers are also adapting to a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and evaluate products. Increasingly, holiday journeys begin not through traditional search, but inside AI assistants like ChatGPT or Perplexity. Shoppers are arriving with stronger intent, narrower budgets, and heightened expectations for relevance. 

“Holiday success in 2025 is defined not just by how much retailers sell, but by how intelligently they sell,” said Marta Frattini, Director of Global Industry Strategy in Retail at Adobe. Consumers are comparing more options, exploring new categories, and refining their preferences long before they land on a retailer’s site; raising both the opportunity and the stakes for brands trying to influence seasonal buying decisions.

At the same time, the macroeconomic environment is tightening. According to PwC, 84 percent of consumers expect to curb discretionary spending in the near term, especially in big-ticket categories. This is accelerating the industry’s shift toward operational precision. Retailers are using unified data models, real-time inventory visibility, and predictive analytics to protect margin while maintaining reliability. 

“Technology is giving retailers the ability to make better decisions faster, and to execute those decisions with both efficiency and brand integrity,” Frattini noted. What once felt like a trade-off between cost-efficiency and customer experience is now increasingly a shared motion.

This connected intelligence is informing merchandising decisions, fulfillment strategies, and even the way retailers handle shipping cutoffs and capacity constraints. Data is no longer a backward-looking diagnostic; it’s a forward-leaning guide that reveals demand surges, intent cues, friction points, and geographic shifts before they fully materialize.

Stories That Sell

Even with tighter budgets, holiday spending remains meaningful. NRF expects consumers to spend around $890 per person this season, while Adobe’s 2025 Holiday Forecast projects U.S. online holiday sales surpassing $250 billion. That growth is fueled by changing consumer behavior; particularly the rise of AI-assisted shopping, where consumers use AI tools for personalized deal discovery, side-by-side comparisons, and gift inspiration tailored to style, budget, or recipient.

With every purchase more considered, brand narrative matters more. Emotional, purpose-driven storytelling is increasingly becoming a differentiator, especially as budgets tighten. Retailers are moving beyond generic personalization toward GEO-informed experiences, where creative, offers, and messaging adjust based on local demand patterns, inventory fluctuations, and customer context.

This is also where creativity and data intersect more deeply than ever. Real-time signals, such as intent patterns, browse behavior, and even aesthetic fatigue, now inform creative direction before any asset is produced. Adobe’s advancements in content analytics are helping retailers understand which visual attributes, themes, or formats will resonate before investing in production.

Generative AI is amplifying this creative shift. 

“Retailers are bringing creativity and data together in a way that allows them to deliver experiences that are both emotionally resonant and operationally scalable,” said Frattini. “Holiday is the most demanding content moment of the year, but generative AI is giving retailers the capacity to maintain a unified seasonal aesthetic while adapting messaging multiple times a week, producing new assets without additional photoshoots, and aligning creative to real-time inventory and fulfillment conditions.”

Adobe has also observed a 4,700% increase in AI-driven traffic year over year, with conversion rates eight percent higher than average. As a result, Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is becoming essential. Traditional SEO is no longer enough.

“AI engines rely heavily on authoritative third-party signals - gift guides, reviews, and structured product information - which means retailers must influence not just their owned surfaces, but the broader ecosystem shaping how AI summarizes their brand,” Frattini explained.

Looking Beyond This Season

Many of the behaviors consolidating in 2025 reflect an early preview of 2026’s retail baseline. AI-assisted shopping will increasingly serve as the first touchpoint — not a novelty. Experience governance, or ensuring AI-generated interactions uphold brand voice, compliance, and consistency, will evolve into a core capability. And real-time, context-aware personalization, which can be historically difficult to execute at holiday scale, will become not only possible but expected.

“Holiday often reflects the beginning of a new baseline,” Frattini said. “The behaviors consolidating now; from conversational search to real-time decisioning, are the capabilities that will define competitive advantage moving forward.”

Retailers who treat this holiday season not as a temporary revenue spike but as a strategic proving ground will be best positioned for the year ahead: more agile, more intelligent, and better aligned with how modern consumers discover, compare, and buy.

How is your organization redefining holiday success?